H.R. 4302

[Congressional Bills 119th Congress]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
[H.R. 4302 Introduced in House (IH)]

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119th CONGRESS
1st Session
H. R. 4302

To accelerate subseasonal to seasonal prediction skills related to 
precipitation forecasts for water management in the western United 
States, improve atmospheric river forecasts across the country, and for 
other purposes.

_______________________________________________________________________

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

July 7, 2025

Mr. Obernolte (for himself, Mr. Fong, and Mr. Whitesides) introduced 
the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Science, 
Space, and Technology

_______________________________________________________________________

A BILL

To accelerate subseasonal to seasonal prediction skills related to 
precipitation forecasts for water management in the western United 
States, improve atmospheric river forecasts across the country, and for 
other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the 
United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This Act may be cited as the ``Improving Atmospheric River 
Forecasts Act''.

SEC. 2. SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL FORECASTING PILOT PROJECTS.

(a) Improving Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasts.--Subsection (h) 
of section 1762 of the Food Security Act of 1985 (15 U.S.C. 8521) is 
amended to read as follows:
``(h) Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting Pilot Projects.--
``(1) Establishment.--The Under Secretary shall establish 
at least one pilot project within the U.S. Weather Research 
Program of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office of the 
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to support 
improved subseasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts for 
water management in the western United States.
``(2) Objectives.--In carrying out this subsection, the 
Under Secretary shall ensure that a pilot project under 
paragraph (1) addresses key science challenges to improving 
forecasts and developing related products described in 
subsection (c) for water management in the western United 
States, including the following:
``(A) Improving model resolution, both horizontal 
and vertical, to resolve issues associated with 
mountainous terrain, such as intensity of precipitation 
and relative fraction of rain versus snow 
precipitation.
``(B) Improving fidelity in modeling of--
``(i) the atmospheric boundary layer in 
mountainous regions; and
``(ii) atmospheric rivers.
``(C) Resolving challenges in predicting winter 
atmospheric circulation and storm tracks, including 
periods of blocked versus unblocked flow over the 
eastern North Pacific Ocean and western United States.
``(D) Advancing scientific understanding of the 
roles of atmospheric rivers in subseasonal to seasonal 
precipitation, and developing tools to predict periods 
of active or inactive atmospheric river landfalls and 
inland penetration over the western United States.
``(3) Activities.--A pilot project under this subsection 
shall be carried out in coordination with the Assistant 
Administrator for the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric 
Research and the Director of the National Weather Service and 
include activities that carry out the following:
``(A) Best implement recommendations of the 
National Weather Service's 2019 Report, entitled 
`Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation: Plans 
for the Twenty-First Century'.
``(B) Achieve measurable objectives for operational 
forecast improvement.
``(C) Engage with, and leverage the resources of, 
institutions of higher education (as such term is 
defined in section 101 of the Higher Education Act of 
1965 (20 U.S.C. 1001)) with experience in western 
precipitation science, as well as entities within the 
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 
existence as of the date of the enactment of this 
subsection, including the Western Regional Climate 
Center and the National Centers for Environmental 
Information.
``(4) Authorization of appropriations.--From amounts made 
available to Operations, Research, and Facilities at the 
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is 
authorized to be appropriated $15,000,000 for each of fiscal 
years 2026 through 2030 to carry out this subsection.
``(5) Sunset.--The authority under this subsection shall 
terminate on the date that is five years after the date of the 
enactment of this subsection.''.

SEC. 3. ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM.

(a) In General.--The Under Secretary, in collaboration with the 
United States weather industry and academic partners, shall establish 
an atmospheric river forecast improvement program (in this section 
referred to as the ``program'').
(b) Goal.--The goal of the program shall be to reduce the loss of 
life and property and economic losses from atmospheric rivers through 
the research, development, and extension of accurate, effective, and 
actionable forecasts and warnings, including by carrying out the 
following:
(1) Establishing atmospheric river forecast skill metrics 
that include assessing the benefits of dynamical modeling, data 
assimilation, and machine learning improvements in the 
probabilistic forecasts of landfall location, extreme wind and 
precipitation, and cascading impacts.
(2) Developing an atmospheric river forecast system within 
a unified forecast system, and advancing next-generation 
coupled modeling systems, with the capability of providing 
seasonal to short-range atmospheric river forecasts that 
include forecast of snow accumulation and other hydrologic 
components.
(3) Advancing scientific understanding of the roles of 
atmospheric rivers in subseasonal to seasonal precipitation and 
probabilistic predictions at subseasonal and seasonal scales.
(4) Developing tools and improved forecast products to 
predict periods of active or inactive atmospheric river 
landfalls and inland penetration over the United States with a 
focus on addressing stakeholder and public needs related to 
perceiving, comprehending, and responding to atmospheric river 
forecast improvements.
(5) Enhancing the transition of research to operations 
through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 
testbeds, including the evaluation of physical and social 
science, technology, and other research to develop products and 
services for implementation and use by relevant stakeholders.
(6) Incorporating into atmospheric river modeling and 
forecasting, as appropriate, social, behavioral, risk, 
communication, and economic sciences.
(c) Innovative Observations, Data Assimilation, and Modeling.--The 
Under Secretary shall ensure the program periodically examines, tests, 
and evaluates the value of incorporating innovative observations, data, 
and measurements with respect to the improvement of atmospheric river 
analysis, modeling, forecasts, predictions, and warnings.
(d) Program Plan.--Not later than 270 days after the date of the 
enactment of this Act, the Under Secretary, in consultation with the 
Secretary of the Air Force or the Commander of the 53rd Weather 
Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserve Command, shall develop 
a plan that details the specific research, development, data 
acquisition, partnerships with the weather industry and academic 
partners, and technology transfer activities, as well as corresponding 
resources, and timelines, necessary to achieve the goal of the program 
under subsection (b). Such plan shall be made available to the public 
on release.
(e) Annual Budget for Plan Submittal.--After the development of the 
plan pursuant to subsection (d), the Under Secretary shall, not less 
frequently than annually, submit to Congress a proposed budget 
corresponding with the activities identified in such plan.
(f) Improved Modeling.--In carrying out the program, the Under 
Secretary may carry out the following:
(1) Develop, test, and operationalize prototype high-
resolution Atmospheric River Analysis and Forecasting System 
models through research and operations partnerships with 
institutions of higher education and other partners outside the 
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
(2) Enhance data assimilation of current and new satellite 
and ocean observations that is useful for atmospheric river 
analysis and forecasting predictions.
(3) Improve data processing techniques related to 
atmospheric river analysis and forecasting predictions.
(4) Use artificial intelligence and machine learning 
methods as applicable to atmospheric river analysis and 
forecasting predictions.
(5) Ensure the surface and subsurface observations of the 
ocean meet the needs of atmospheric river analysis and 
forecasting predictions on different time scales.
(6) To the maximum extent practicable, improve or establish 
baseline weather monitoring services in areas that have 
historically experienced, or are predicted to experience, 
atmospheric rivers.
(g) Conduct of Reconnaissance.--The Under Secretary shall acquire 
and sustain adequate aircraft, scientific equipment, and personnel to 
meet mission requirements of the National Hurricane Operations Plan and 
the National Winter Seasons Operation plan, and to carry out the 
following:
(1) Ensure atmospheric river air reconnaissance 
observations are available throughout the expected seasons of 
tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers.
(2) To the maximum extent practicable and in accordance 
with paragraph (4), ensure data and information collected are 
made available for research and operations purposes.
(3) Participate in research and operations partnerships 
that guide flight planning and use research methods to improve 
and expand the capabilities and effectiveness of atmospheric 
river reconnaissance over time.
(4) Develop data management strategies to ensure that data 
and metadata are adequately stewarded, maintained, and 
archived.
(5) Undertake such other additional activities as the Under 
Secretary, in consultation with the Secretary of the Air Force, 
considers appropriate to improve and grow the hurricane hunter 
and atmospheric river reconnaissance mission.
(h) Improved Atmospheric River Hazard Communication.--The Under 
Secretary may conduct research and development activities to carry out 
the following:
(1) As appropriate, develop and refine methods to 
categorize the intensity of weather and oceans hazards, 
including tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers, on a 
quantitative scale and the effectiveness of such scale in 
hazard communication.
(2) Develop best practices for communication of atmospheric 
river events and hazards across regions of the United States.
(3) Gather information from areas prone to hurricanes and 
atmospheric rivers regarding levels of knowledge and 
preparedness, including responses to early forecasts and 
warnings by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 
Administration.
(4) Explore strategies and effectiveness of communicating 
that hurricane and atmospheric river events are beneficial at 
lower intensities versus hazardous at higher intensity.
(i) Definitions.--In this section, the terms ``seasonal'', 
``subseasonal'', ``Under Secretary'', and ``weather industry'' have the 
meanings given such terms in section 2 of the Weather Research and 
Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (15 U.S.C. 8501).
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